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Rawlins, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Rawlins WY
National Weather Service Forecast for: Rawlins WY
Issued by: National Weather Service Cheyenne, WY
Updated: 3:26 am MDT Jul 8, 2025
 
Today

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Sunny

Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Wednesday

Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 90. West wind 5 to 15 mph.
Hot

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
Showers
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Mostly Sunny

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Mostly Clear

Friday

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunny

Hi 88 °F Lo 58 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 59 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 50 °F Hi 76 °F Lo 46 °F Hi 83 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
Sunny, with a high near 88. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 90. West wind 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Friday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Saturday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 88.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Rawlins WY.

Weather Forecast Discussion
233
FXUS65 KCYS 080836
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
236 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  both today and Wednesday.

- Active pattern will continue as monsoonal moisture moves into
  the region today through Wednesday.

- Much cooler Thursday night and Friday as a strong cold front
  moves south across the high plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A quiet night tonight across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska
with only a few high clouds slowly drifting over Kimball and
Cheyenne counties. These clouds should be out of the region in the
next 1 to 2 hours, leading to clear skies everywhere tonight.
Temperatures are fairly mild tonight, despite the clear skies
overhead. Temperatures are sitting in the mid-50s to mid-60s as of
07Z. Winds are mostly calm as well, with only a few locations
boasting winds over 10mph. Overall, a quiet night compared to recent
days.

The upper-level ridge over the southern CONUS will continue to push
northward today with the 500mb high right on its heels. The 500mb
high looks to establish itself over the Four Corners Region,
suggesting an influx of monsoonal moisture into the region over the
next few days as the high rotates over the Four Corners Region. As a
result of this, multiple 500mb vorticity maxima with eject out from
the high and move overhead throughout the afternoon hours. The
vorticity lobes will enable a shortwave through to develop just west
of the CWA and move due eastern overhead this afternoon. However,
under the ridge, the 500mb flow is quite weak once more, with only
around 25 to 30kts overhead. Despite this, the vorticity maxima and
subsequent shortwave at 500mb will active as forcing for synoptic
lift across much of the CWA, especially east of the Laramie Range
into the western Nebraska Panhandle. 700mb flow remains fairly weak
and disorganized today, with winds peaking only around 25kts this
afternoon around 21Z. 700mb WAA will be present throughout the
morning and afternoon hours with 700mb temperatures rising into the
15 to 17C range, resulting in surface temperatures maxing out in the
upper-80s to mid-90s across the CWA this afternoon. The terrain-
induced dryline will be present again today and will move easterly
throughout the early afternoon hours, acting as a secondary form of
lift, though closer to the surface. Westerly 700mb winds and
westerly surface flow west of the Laramie Range will aide in the
dryline becoming more defined and pushing further east, thanks in
part to the subsequent dry downsloping with westerly winds aloft and
near the surface. Dewpoints behind the dryline will tank into the
30s to low-40s, while dewpoints east of the dryline will be in the
50s thanks to the monsoonal moisture slowly advecting into the
region. So, while temperatures will be quite warm today behind the
dryline, drier air and breezy conditions will lead to apparent
temperatures lower than the actual temperatures this afternoon.

0-6km Bulk Shear will max out around 40kts across the southern
Panhandle this afternoon and will be oriented nearly perpendicular
to the advancing terrain-induced dryline. Surface winds will be
nearly parallel to the dryline, favoring storm initiation and
initially discrete nature to the storms that form. Fairly straight
hodographs in forecast soundings from both the HRRR and the RAP
suggest again that storms may be initially discrete, then quickly
grown upscale, should they be able to maintain themselves.
Additionally, storm splitting will be favored, however, this one
again requires storms to maintain themselves rather than be pulsey
in nature. Forecast soundings indicate a wide variety of CAPE
values, with HRRR soundings suggesting less than 1000J to around
1200J and RAP soundings suggesting nearly 2000J. The RAP has, once
again, higher dewpoints than the HRRR. With the dryline moving
eastward and reinforced by dry downsloping winds off the Laramie
Range, the HRRR solution appears more likely, with the lower
dewpoints associated with the downsloping. However, both the RAP and
HRRR soundings suggest an Inverted-V sounding shape with around 1500
to 2000J of DCAPE, favoring strong downburst winds. Given the
relatively weak set up today, storms that form this afternoon will
likely produce strong winds and/or just be gusty showers. If these
storms find a decent pocket of CAPE, it is possible to get some
large hail, assuming storms can maintain themselves long enough.
Forecast soundings suggest enough CAPE in the hail growth zone to
get fairly large hail this afternoon, though it may be isolated in
nature. Surface to 3km SRH values are low, though high enough to
favor rotating updrafts, but the slow to non-existant steering flow
will lead to slower storm motions and a higher potential for cool
outflow air to undercut the storms and ultimately lead to the storms
dissipating. There is enough of a threat for strong winds and some
quarter-sized hail that SPC has included much of the Panhandle in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) with hail and strong winds as the
primary hazards. One positive indicator on convection today is that
the cap is much weaker than yesterday and will likely not do much in
the way of preventing convective initiation and development, so the
severe hazards and threats stand.

Upper-level ridging remains in place for Wednesday, along with the
500mb high over the Four Corners Region continually advecting in
monsoonal moisture. Similar to today, 500mb vorticity maxima will
eject out from the high and move overhead, leading to the
development of a 500mb shortwave and increased synoptic lift across
the region. 700mb flow will be a touch strong, but remain from the
westerly direction leading to a strong surface, terrain-incuded
dryline in the afternoon. Stronger 0-6km Bulk Shear is possible
Wednesday with the overall stronger winds aloft. CAPE will be lower
though, with models suggesting only around 500 to 1000J. Therefore,
storms look likely again Wednesday and the shear will be stronger,
but CAPE will be lacking. The dryline should be enough forcing to
get a few isolated storms going and these storms will be capable of
producing strong winds and large hail. There is a Marginal Risk
again for portions of the CWA on Wednesday. It will also be warmer,
with afternoon high temperatures in the low-90s to low-100s area-
wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 234 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Main forecast concern in the medium to long range is a
relatively strong cold front diving south out of Canada Thursday
night and Friday, resulting in cooler temperatures, showers and
thunderstorms, and possibly some fog across the eastern plains
and/or the I-80 Summit. Thursday will be pleasant with near
average temperatures for this time of the year ahead of the
front with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening hours. Models show the some potential for
nocturnal thunderstorms Thursday night as the front gradually
moves south across the region with MUCAPE around 500 to 800
j/kg around midnight. Not very confident with how far south
these storms will develop into early Friday morning, so kept POP
between 15 to 25 percent well north of I-80 for now. As we head
into Friday, all models show 700mb temperatures lowering below
5c with little recovery during the day as upslope north to
northeast winds continue through the day. Kept temperatures a
few degrees above guidance mainly due to the high July sun
angle, but expect highs to be nearly 10 degrees below normal for
this time of the year. Models disagree with precipitation
chances as the GFS wants to keep low clouds in through most of
the day while the ECMWF and Canadian show showers and weak
convection most of the day. Ensemble guidance favor the ECMWF
and Canadian solution so kept POP between 30 to 50 percent for
most of eastern Wyoming and western nebraska.

For next weekend, a gradual warming trend is expected as the
upper level high across the desert southwest builds northward
and intensifies. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to become
more isolated as 700mb climb above 15c. Highs in the upper 80s
to mid 90s will return for much of the forecast area by Sunday
and next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A strong upper level ridge axis, typical for this time of the year,
will build across the intermountain west and the Front Range today.
Although thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon, coverage
will be lower and mainly confined to areas east of Interstate 25
this evening.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue tonight and
Tuesday with winds shifting to the south or southeast with gusts up
to 20 knots at times. Added PROB30 TS to KSNY and KAIA since those
two terminals have the best chance of seeing late afternoon/evening
thunderstorms. Probability of thunder further west is generally
below 10 percent, and closer to 20 percent for KBFF.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through Wednesday
     evening for WYZ423-427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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